That’s still there. And this is the fourth lecture that we’ve held since Bob’s death in 2012. Let’s develop a fully developed air campaign to get at all of those and then, you know, extend it ever beyond that so that we’re looking at every tool that we’ve got to really, you know, as the president wants us to do, is to crush this enemy. So if you look at the refugees coming across the Aegean Sea—so we need to anticipate, you know, the movement of people and where will they resettle as we look at rising sea levels, and we need to think long term about this. December 21, 2020, Teaching Notes So you want to make—you know, you want to build public trust, one, that you’ll produce outcomes but, two, you’ll be a good steward of the resources you invested in. NELLER: I mean, cyber causes us problems because we’re a nation of laws and we respect the rights of every citizen in this room. But study, you know, our vulnerabilities. And then we started to realize that they looked an awful lot like something much more than a terrorist group. And we’ve put sensors orbiting over the battlespace. They had infrastructure. No. And you can have the coolest ship on the planet but it can only be in one place at a time, and it can’t be in the Gulf and in the South China Sea. | Military Times Reports, Money Minute: Dispelling myths about VA home loans, An open letter to VA Secretary-designate McDonough, US Reps. Moulton and Banks: The future of defense is in public-private partnerships, US Air Force chief of staff: How to prepare the service for tomorrow’s fight, Chief of US Army Futures Command: The service is experiencing a technological evolution, Former Pentagon comptroller: Observations and opportunities for America’s defense budget, https://www.militarytimes.com © 2021 Sightline Media Group. Whereas China, Russia are more our traditional kinds of threats. A submariner for, did you tell me, a quarter century, or? What are you seeing in the Russian navy and submarine force? SANGER: These guys are going to have to take sides, yeah. I thought that the enemy, ISIS, had—essentially had the strategic initiative. Majuro, 70,000 people. 48% feel they don’t belong in their local civilian communities. That’s for sure. HAASS: Well, good evening and welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations. By the way, the biggest change in Iraq and Syria, and ISIS, and from an air perspective is, in August of ’14, when this began, we looked at them as a terrorist group and we targeted them as a terrorist group, and we tried to collect intelligence on them as a terrorist group. SANGER: And even without simultaneity, you have the pivot. Approximately 4 million Americans turn 18 each year, but only 30 percent of them can meet the minimum requirements for enlistment, leaving 1.2 million able to serve. (Laughter.). That’s the active Army, the regular Army. I wanted to ask about the role of chaplains in forward areas, if each of you could speak a little bit about that. It became an alliance of choice as nations saw the benefits of being a member. And I can tell you from being a commander at various levels in that combat that chaplains play a critical role. And we came up with a campaign plan. It’s interesting with some countries is that when you do things in response to their actions and they then accuse you of doing something to aggravate them, which causes them to do something. WELSH: —in the technology that John is talking about. Absolutely not. And let’s make it a little more complicated by asking the question, do we still need it if the NATO members other than the United States don’t pay a larger and larger share? They’re out there attacking ISIS in a variety of places. And that’s what’s significant. SANGER: Yeah. Digital and Cyberspace Policy Program, In Brief But our men are dying. Are you normalizing cyberwarfare, even while we’re using it against an enemy like ISIS? It is a glacier on the ice fields of Greenland that is moving during the summer months at the rate of over eight miles a year. Edward Alden, CFR’s Bernard L. Schwartz senior fellow specializing in U.S. economic competitiveness, trade, and immigration policy, and Jennifer Hillman, senior fellow for trade and international political economy at CFR, sit down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the incoming Biden administration’s likely approach to trade policy. by Brandon Valeriano And so we’re—we are reluctant to pass through your webpage or your website to get at somebody who’s on the other side of that firewall who’s lying and violating the law. (Laughter.) And how do you think we’re doing on it today? Statements of “existential threat” and alternatives such as recruiting 16-year-olds may be a clear indication that it is past time for a fact-based national dialogue as to whether the AVF is working and will work in the future based on fairness, efficiency and sustainability. The 7 Most Alarming Challenges Facing Today’s Marine Corps, According To Its Own Officers. Now, there’s numerous areas where the work of the Council on Foreign Relations and the military overlap, from Laurie Garrett’s analysis of the military’s response to Ebola to the contribution of our Stanton nuclear fellows, and from the works, say, by Senior Fellow Max Boot on wars big and small, to all that we’re doing on cybersecurity. Our sense is that China does not want to be a global hegemon, but they clearly want to be recognized as the regional leader in this area. WELSH: The largest period of sustained lack of conflict in Western Europe in history, I think. We’re going to be surprised. We’re seeing Chinese fishing trawlers provoking the United States Navy carrying out sovereign acts, but just over the horizon is the PLA. It’s melting. 70% of Millennial military families believe two incomes are vital to their family’s well-being. One of the recent investigations into issues facing veterans and military families is the report produced by the Veterans Health Administration (VHA), which provided a number of alarming findings. Conscription using a lottery based system would be a fair, efficient, sustainable, legal and proven alternative to fixing the military's recruiting problem, says the author of this commentary. The good overrides the bad—always has, always will. It’s calving. MILLEY: Well, I don’t think it’s a state secret that the Iranians are in Iraq with a variety of capabilities that they have. But I think what we’ve done is, first of all, identified the problem, seen that it has certain traits or characteristics that are identifiable, and then helped our partner nations develop counter-capabilities, to include intelligence in messaging and information so that they—when they see something like this they can confront it and call it out and they don’t sit there and wait and somebody’s like, hey, who are these guys walking around dressed like this and what did they say and how did this story get planted, and then there’s a political aspect to it. supports HTML5 video, National Security Correspondent, New York Times. You know, we are—we cannot just sit there. You know, they’re not—whatever faith they are, they’re there. You’ve seen those really change the way, the nature of the Air Force in your time. You’ve gotten to the point—and correct me if I’m wrong on this—you probably have more pilots in training for unmanned aircraft than you did for manned aircraft. WELSH: OK, one last comment on that just real quickly. So in my role, meeting with all of the presidents of Central America, the problem they’re dealing with is that bulk shipments of cocaine land in those countries, are broken down to retail for consumption in the United States. Thank you, Richard. (Applause.). In addition to the measures noted above, numerous pundits, consultants, think tankers and military personnel professionals have recommended measures to enhance recruiting. The issue with the Iraqi security forces is not so much one of loyalty and religious confession sort of thing. The integrated system would do the trick, of which the THAAD is a subcomponent. We’re actually growing, right? SANGER: And is the redeployment of some NATO forces that are circulating through this area sufficient to create a deterrent for that? MILLEY: Oh, I could have sworn I heard Neller. So you might want to think about that for a moment. President Obama talked about a move basically to reduce our focus on the Middle East a bit. It’s really a privilege, thank you. It’s going to be very successful. They’re actioning targets. Tonight marks the 15th time that CFR has hosted the service chiefs. There’s basically no job in the Air Force, I think, at this point, that General Welsh has not had. 69% of military family respondents indicated the current operational tempo exerts an unacceptable level of stress for a healthy work-life balance. And they work closely with a variety of the Shia groups and they have a fair amount of influence. I mean, that’s the—you know, Sun Tzu, the ability to defeat your enemy without having to fight them. MILLEY: He’s a little green man. Admiral Zukunft, we had a discussion the other day about global warming and what potential threats that poses to populations, the possibility of new conflicts that come up as you have rising seas. WELSH: I don’t think it’ll be a whole lot more than that 10 years from now. So as far as anything different, I think part of the discussion that we’ve had—or at least I’ve had in my own mind—is before they were—it was annoying and it was kind of a difficult thing, but now the capabilities that they’re looking at—we know they have nuclear weapons but they haven’t had the means to deliver them to the homeland. Our latest taskforce on North Korea will provide an assessment of policy toward the country against the backdrop of its enhanced nuclear and missile capabilities. You may not have seen them but they’re there. The recommendations include increasing the number of recruiters (the Army already has approximately 9,000), increasing enlistment bonuses (already up to $40,000), expanded use of social media, increased access to high schools for recruiters, and direct commissions for technical specialists. Is it more Marines? It’s a changing dynamic. Could you say a little more on that? (Laughter. Early in the year, that was reduced to 76,500. It’s got more of a sense of freedom of navigation, safety for those at sea, and so forth. So I’ll stop there and let somebody like Mark Welsh or CNO—or General Milley, who actually owns most of the shooters and the Patriot batteries and stuff, let them talk. You’ve got the jobs thinking about the future of the force. Asked by Wiki User. The American people must address their problem. And it’s been tested and I’m very confident that—it depends on volume but I’m very confident it will be successful. You can, you know, achieve your strategic aims on a continuing basis and on a contingency basis. A propitious year, it might be supposed, to consider the future of land warfare. SANGER: So that includes the Reserve and the Guard. And I think each of our services, our national leadership has asked us to do certain things with capabilities and we’re doing that. (Laughter.) And thanks to the ambassador and to Mrs. McKeon for the opportunity for us to be here. This is an issue that impacts not only national security, but also the social fabric of our democracy. (Laughter. And how much closer do you think we are to organizing a Sunni force that can finish off that job? So tell us a little bit about how you view numbers versus the technological capability. So our adversaries—not necessarily North Korea but other countries like Iran—have developed a very large inventory of short-, medium-range missiles that are just conventional weaponry, but they could very easily overwhelm, you know, a certain number of Patriot batteries or other capabilities that have a capability to shoot them down. SANGER: Directed-energy antimissile, what was imagined back in the Reagan era but is now actually, you think, getting closer to a reality. And so it really is a whole-of-government approach. We’ve seen a lot of back and forth in the past year between the Navy and others, and the White House, about the degree to which we want to run freedom of navigation operations down into these areas that the Chinese have claimed their own. (Laughter.) They’ve taken Ramadi. MILLEY: I would just advocate, you know, if you haven’t read the book by Robert Haddick called “Fire on the Water,” which really delineates this whole access denial. I want to thank the audience for coming here and for such terrific questions. You know, about 30 percent of the world’s trade flows through that part of the ocean. Russia has aggressively crossed sovereign international boundaries that have been sovereign countries since the fall of the Berlin Wall in ’89 and ’90. So thank you, Dad, for coming as well. (Laughter.). SANGER: You can pass these off a little bit later on, yeah. So I’ll go back to last summer, and I was in Barrow, Alaska, our northern-most outpost along the north slope of Alaska. Thank all of you for coming and doing this again. ), WELSH: Probably not—(laughter)—although you’d all look really good sitting in it, just like we do. And as you said, you know, some of the technology that’s resident on those platforms is really exquisite. December 28, 2020. How does the U.S.—how does DOD and how does the wider government plan for opponents that may seek strategies that stay under a threshold of a military response, that try to use less than fully attributable means to prevent DOD from responding to them? And then they have to have the capability to be credible, right? It’s come through in all of this discussion about how you’re trying to put together coalitions, how it is that you’re attempting to build force multipliers. You add it all together and you connect those dots, that’s a fundamentally different external behavior of a nation state. SANGER: Yeah, OK. So the Army chaplains are out there. with James M. Lindsay, Edward Alden and Jennifer Hillman I’d missed several recent issues of the Marine Corps … SANGER: —a North Korea that could actually put a nuclear weapon on a short-range missile. So I wonder if you can tell us a little bit about how you integrate that. SANGER: —than we’ve ever seen before as well. Even if you ran the numbers, did the threat analysis five years ago or so, you know, we probably wouldn’t have included Russia in that calculus. And he’s truly an expert on our—on our nuclear submarine force, holds a master’s degree in electrical engineering from MIT. Everyone recognizes the biggest challenges facing the U.S. Army. And that is something that needs to be closely monitored, confronted. And particularly, talk a little bit about Syria and Iraq in this current struggle. And they’re saying the sea level is rising. And so our adversaries are very clever, and they know what our strengths and our weaknesses are and they use those against us. And we’re honored to have all of them here with us tonight, including three for the first time. (Laughter. Scroll through the Top 10 Problems in the World Today.. 10. NATO was an alliance of necessity when it began. So that force is now being rebuilt. The answer to that is probably no. MILLEY: They Army has been involved in Iraq and Afghanistan and we’ve suffered a lot of casualties. We think it is. And then we have the compendium for it. Perhaps Winston Churchill was right when he said that “Americans will always do the right thing, after exhausting every other alternative.”. I hope we keep this tradition going for many years more. And he said to us at that time he believed the intent of the Chinese was to push both the Navy, Coast Guard, all of American forces out to the Second Island Chain, keep them out of their territory in the Pacific. by Richard N. Haass WELSH: Thanks, David. Consider the arithmetic. Our military veterans have seen it … Everything stems, you know, beyond—transregionally if not globally, cyber being a big part of this. ), Domestic Terrorism Strikes U.S. Capitol, and Democracy, In Brief Well, first of all, you know, we pushed out an Arctic strategy, but we did so in concert with the White House. So I think the only thing like it is Her Majesty’s Ship Victory that Lord Nelson served on. War and terrorism. January 5, 2021 We cannot turn back ocean temperatures. Backgrounder According to Gen. Milley, “we’re going to have to, as we move forward in the next 10 years, optimize the army for urban warfare.” Battles in open terrain will increasingly be a thing of the past, as vast urbanization in developing countries is driving the majority of the world’s population into cities. I think we need to make sure that we engage not only the military element of power, but also the diplomatic and economic, which are extremely important in that world. One proposal that may do more harm than help is to enlist immature, non-deployable 16-year-olds into our military who are unlikely to succeed in basic training or make it through their initial term of enlistment. And if you go out there during what they call king tides, they’re nearly up to their ankles in water. A number of allegations in recent months regarding questionable ethical behavior-- as well as that which is decidedly unethical -- have afflicted nearly every segment of the armed forces including the Navy, Air Force, National Guard, and the Marines. MILLEY: Red Sox to win the series. The real hard question is what happens if one of these other contingencies were to go off that—and Bob Neller was talking about Korea and John Richardson was talking about China, and we haven’t even talked about Russia yet or some of these others. Has been the commander of naval submarine forces. It kind of seemed to me sliding over the part about the split between the Sunnis and the Shia that were going to be in this force. They’re going to be successful. The most important issues facing America today are certainly frightening, and unfortunately, not all of these will have direct and obvious solutions that can be … SANGER: General Neller, I was just back from a week in South Korea last week, and it’s pretty obvious that we’ve seen a big ramp-up by the North Koreans in activity in just the past six months—missile tests, one nuclear test, the possibility of another one ahead of their Workers’ Party Congress, which meets for the first time in 36 years later on this week. They had what looked like fielded military forces. There’s U.S. interests at stake. Conscription would restore the military’s single greatest source of competitive advantage for high quality talent with civilian employers. I also want to warn them that for the first time this event is on the record. Sign up for the Early Bird Brief - a daily roundup of military and defense news stories from around the globe. (Laughter.). Twenty to 30 years from now, I think it’ll start to shift. I’ve been out to Majuro, to the Marshall Islands. And, General Milley, let’s start with you. A long time ago I was in OSD. Pure evidence that recidivism lives out here, that you guys were willing to come back. I think the issue is if Russia decided to cross another border, could you stop them? The Army is struggling to meet its recruiting goals as it seeks to expand. MILLEY: That’s a great question for the Navy. NELLER: Could I just—on this question I agree with Mark about the Iraqi security forces. The team has sort of stood up, organized, and—organized their defenses to become very capable in this. They’re just not all sitting on or riding an airplane. They may get smaller. So I’m hoping to speak not only about what’s going on today, but where they see the military headed. So we watch this all the time and we’re coming to the point where we’re counting the number of missiles that are there and we’re trying to come up with the force ratios. Today's Army is the most well-equipped and most responsive in its well-storied history. So tell us a little bit about what you’re doing in the Pacific, something people don’t think all that much about because they think of—much more of your closer to home operations. He did this five years ago, begin to shift more and more assets to the Pacific, have roughly more of a 60/40 kind of mix toward the end of this. If the term “simultaneity” enters the discussion, we have a problem. SANGER: Well, I want to thank all five of you. So we have sea-based interceptors. MILLEY: There’s a very robust, very sophisticated, integrated air, naval, and ground—integrated air missile defense system scattered all around the country and overseas. by Bruce Hoffman HAASS: And David will properly introduce all five of these gentlemen. And this program is but one example of how the U.S. military makes a sustained investment in its most valuable asset, and that’s America’s men and women in uniform. Just 29 percent of America's 18 year olds can meet minimum enlistment requirements. Of the many hurdles military veterans face in America today, they name adjusting back to everyday life as the most significant challenge. MILLEY: Again, short range—you know, the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, independent of each other don’t win wars. That’s where we have to go—. And then, also a little bit about what the risks of that are. And if General Thomas or General Votel were here they could wax much more eloquently about it. Sixty-eight, in Czechoslovakia, Soviet forces were already there. But in a previous job I actually had to kind of break open the books and learn about this, so I would say, without getting into the details, that we have a very capable ballistic missile defense. 0 1 2. And now, you know, the China coast guard is building 10,000-ton cruisers. We are not going to cede that domain, whether it’s they’re recruiting on it or where they’re messaging on it, where they’re providing disinformation or propaganda or however you want to couch it. What is the biggest problem facing the U.S. military today? And I commanded NATO ground forces in Afghanistan. (Laughter.). ZUKUNFT: And so we talked a lot about the Mideast, talked a lot about ISIL, South China Sea. And it’s also a multinational approach. Now, with respect to their building program and steady patrols—not visible of course because that’s the whole nature of that business—but what we’re seeing lately is a resurgence of activity there that, really, you have to go back to the 1990s kind of Cold War levels of activity to see the same number of patrols that we’re seeing. How are we doing on making the pivot a reality at this point? These are Inuit tribesmen who have lived up there for more than the last millennium and they say: The ocean around us has changed. Other decisions will fall from that, because the nation that puts certainty into uncertain situations has an advantage. MILLEY: Well, I became chief in August. The point is that it is a new tool with a whole lot of people who are involved in using it, from the people actually operating the controls, the people who are watching the feeds that it sends it, to the people who make the decisions on what to do with that information. Q: Father Andrew from St. Paul’s Foundation on Mount Athos. Unless you don't pay any attention to the news and, we guess, skipped the previous entries, you probably already know that the military has a problem with sexual assault. And it’s very easy to think in two-, four-, and six-year terms and election cycles and say, well, it won’t happen on my watch. So for us it was “back to the future.” But as much as many of us would like to not be able to focus on the Middle East, the world gets a vote. Our acquisition portfolio has grown less than 2 percent over the last two years. In 1973, the soon-to-be most disgraced president of the United States implemented the all-volunteer force (AVF) and did away with conscription — a political and social act to atone for the sins of the most unpopular war in our country’s history and an unfair military draft. We’ve had the secretary of defense, the deputy secretary, some of you in testimony, talk about the use of cyber right alongside your air power, your ground power. NELLER: And so what I would suggest to you, Father, is what we need is we need more chaplains. And that’s been the change of the last six to eight months. These are the 10th graders in your local high school. And for the regular Army that takes us from 479(,000) or 480(,000) or so today down to about 450(,000) or so by ’18. And I think we will be successful and I think there is sufficient forces. Get the military's most comprehensive news and information every morning. There is no doubt that there is a serious problem in manning the American military. RICHARDSON: Yeah. Tell us a little bit about what your concerns are there. You still have some sequester issues going on. What I think we’ve done, and we continue to do, is we work with nations who have come to ask us to help them train their force to be able to be able to counteract this. This is a fundamentally different situation. But it’s also—I think it would be a mistake to characterize the Iraqi government or the Iraqi security forces as a surrogate of Iran. WELSH: To a lot of our Eastern European and Nordic partner air forces, if you talk to them they’ll tell you that Russia never went anywhere. New questions regarding financial and human resources. We’ve got other interceptors. You responded to David’s question about saying, against ISIS, that you were going to have an indigenous force. And because of the fights in Iraq and Afghanistan, we took a lot of the force structure we had there that we would deploy from the States to Okinawa or Japan and we sent it to the Middle East. That’s their job. And new partnerships forming, even after years and decades of, you know, people not working as closely together. NELLER: There’s no Marine Corps unit—just like an Army unit or a Navy ship that sails or an Air Force squadron or Coast Guard ship—that doesn’t go where they go forward—. And it’s the concerns about a rising China, but particularly about the South China Sea. I think that that came through in the discussion tonight, so thank you all. ( laughter ) —or Iran or Russia multiple tours in Iraq and Afghanistan and even without,. Be here this point, that ’ s a political alliance being a big part the... 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Opting in to the new coronavirus services ’ chaplains are very, very active the fall it sets example... Overall amount of money it is the redeployment of some NATO forces that are circulating through this sufficient... Authorities, at this point, spurring hope that the pandemic ’ s start with you exerts an unacceptable of... Spurring hope that the rest of the things we ’ re going to have to do to deal those... Regard, we ’ re going to open it up to the American people and Congress critical role eastern...
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