48 HRS: 19.4N 129.3E – 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines TYPHOON GONI (T2019) With gusts approaching 195 mph, Super Typhoon Hagibis is an absolute beast. ============================================= Super Typhoon Hagibis, currently moving near the Federated States of Micronesia in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, is a monster that gathered strength at one of the fastest rates ever observed on Earth. ============================================= The exact long-term implications of the storm remain to be seen. The most recent typhoon to pass within 30 miles of Manila was Typhoon Rammasun of 2014 (known as “Glenda” in the Philippines), which passed 25 miles to the south of Manila as a category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Detection and Attribution, https://disqus.com/embed/comments/?base=default&f=wund&t_u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wunderground.com%2Fcat6%2Fcategory-6-sets-its-sights-over-the-rainbow&t_s=weather_underground_2993&t_e=Weather%20Underground&t_d=Weather%20Underground%20%C2%B7%20Conversations%20%C2%B7%20Disqus&t_t=Weather%20Underground&s_o=desc#version=86e2f360b7333fa29fb178e3f0da49c8. Sea East of the Philippines. At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Atsani (998 hPa) located at 16.0N 132.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. By signing up you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 17 knots. Tropical cyclones that occur within the Southern Hemisphere to the east of 90°E are officially monitored by one or more tropical cyclone warning centres. In 2019, there were six category 5 tropical cyclones, and not five, as originally thought, according to the 2019 JTWC best track for the Western Pacific, released last month. Sea East of the Philippines. Detection and Attribution“, 10 of 11 authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests a detectable increase in the average intensity of global hurricanes since the early 1980s; eight of those 11 concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that human-caused climate change contributed to that increased intensity. The most important news stories of the day, curated by Post editors and delivered every morning. 72 HRS: 14.8N 111.1E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea, Japan Meteorological Agency The perturbation to the jet stream may also enhance ridging, or a northward shunting of the jet stream, in the West, favoring a spell of above-normal temperatures for that region. A typhoon with maximum sustained surface winds greather than or equal to 130 knots (approximately Category 5) is called a \"super typhoon,\" and a hurricane of Category 3 and above is called a \"major hurricane.\" A tropical cyclone weaker than Category 1 is not a … ============================================= Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29 – 9:00 AM JST October 31 2020 ============================================= Coastal structures are completely wiped off. ================== Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27 – 15:00 PM JST November 1 2020 Thanks for all, as usual. All the trees that were down were pointing north, meaning it was the wind from the south that caused the damage. ========================= ========================= Goni is a relatively small typhoon, and land interaction will weaken the storm rapidly as it passes over Luzon. The Category 5 storm, ... and low-income residents — many of whom live in apartments or houses incapable of withstanding strong storms — the Category 5 typhoon proved catastrophic. ============================================= Goni is expected to make landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Sunday as a category 4 storm, and pass very close to the capital of Manila at category 1 strength or stronger. Marianas islands (West of Guam). North of there, a period of storminess may be in the offing from the Gulf of Alaska down to the western shores of British Columbia. Forecast and Intensity well latest Euro model has the Hurricane right under Cuba..at the end of this run. 24 HRS: 17.6N 133.8E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines However, the typhoon will experience a less favorable upper-level outflow pattern, which should cause some weakening. Typhoon warnings were up for Tinian, Saipan, Alamagan and Pagan islands. Once Goni emerges into the South China sea after crossing Luzon, high wind shear, drier air, and cooler sea surface temperatures will likely prevent significant re-intensification. 48 HRS: 18.6N 130.6E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines Forecast and Intensity 2. Japan Meteorological Agency The previous record was 110 mph in 24 hours by Cyclone Ernie in 2017. Sea East of the Philippines. (See all EOTS posts here. It also found 72 storms with maximum sustained winds above 190 mph by the end of the century, compared with nine such storms in a simulation of the late-20th-century climate. Category 5 hurricane: Catastrophic damage will occur In a Category 5 hurricane, the highest category hurricane, winds are 157 mph or higher. Hurricane Iota, the 30th named storm this season, is expected to barrel into the Nicaraguan coast as a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. Scientists theorize that a warming climate should make the strongest tropical cyclones stronger, since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans, converting it to kinetic energy in the form of wind. Now if it turns north towards Cuba and Florida, obviously the winds will be a lot stronger. In a 2019 Review Paper by 11 hurricane scientists, “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I. Goni took advantage of nearly ideal conditions for intensification on Thursday and Friday, with light wind shear less than 10 knots, a very moist atmosphere, ocean temperatures of 30 – 31 Celsius (86 – 88° F), and an ocean heat content of 150 kiljoules per square centimeter. Gale Force Winds Storm Force Winds This scale estimates potential property damage. Preston, your comment is an inappropriate, broad brush over-generalization. Goni is expected to make landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Sunday as a category 4 storm, and pass very close to the capital of Manila at category 1 strength or stronger. Is cat6 disqus finished? 72 HRS: 15.4N 114.0E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea, Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15 – 3:00 AM JST October 31 2020 =================== 150 nm from the center, Forecast and Intensity After pulling away from Micronesia, Hagibis is forecast to additionally strengthen, peaking with sustained winds of 170 mph over the open ocean late Monday night into Tuesday. TYPHOON GONI (T2019) 72 HRS: 19.1N 129.0E – 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines, Japan Meteorological Agency Fortunately, the eyewall passed well to the north of the islands, though “destructive” wind gusts of 74 mph or more were possible within the spiral rain bands. ================= Winds of that magnitude in Manila are likely to cause a major disaster. Super Typhoon Goni, equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane, killed at least 20, but 1.07 million tonnes of rice was saved thanks to an early warning. Goni put on an extremely impressive bout of rapid intensification beginning at 0Z October 28, strengthening by 145 mph, from a 30-mph tropical depression to a 175-mph super typhoon, in 54 hours. ========================= =================== Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27 – 3:00 AM JST October 31 2020 Super Typhoon Goni exploded into Earth’s most powerful storm of 2020 as a category 5 storm with 180 mph winds in the waters to the east of the Philippines, at 11 a.m. EDT Friday, October 30. 12 HRS: 15.4N 127.7E – 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines Hurricane "Iota" strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane -- peak winds of 260 km/h (160 mph) -- on November 16, 2020, as it was passing over the Colombian Archipelago of San Andrés, Providencia and Santa Catalina, making it the strongest tropical cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season and the strongest-ever to hit Colombia. At the very least, the system in the Caribbean and the strong high north of Florida will increase the pressure gradient and bring windy conditions all next week over the Florida Peninsula. 120 nm from the center in northern quadrant Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19 – 15:00 PM JST October 31 2020 Its 160 mph winds firmly establish it as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon, looming as a behemoth on satellite after a period of extremely rapid intensification. That puts Japan squarely in its sights this weekend. In the Netherlands, a flood control system is used with the ability to protect against a Category 5 hurricane. 12 HRS: 14.0N 125.2E – 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines 24 HRS: 14.5N 125.0E – 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots. Earth averaged 5.3 Category 5 storms per year between 1990 and 2019, according to ratings made by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center and the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center, so two more Cat 5s would make it a near-average year in that respect. Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37 – 9:00 AM JST November 1 2020 24 HRS: 15.3N 117.4E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea The storm is … The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale currently runs from Category 1 through Category 5, and Category 5 is classified as 157-plus mph. “At Saipan, their automated observing system is likely down right now because of the storm,” said Mike Middlebrooke, a senior forecaster at the National Weather Service in Guam. 24 HRS: 16.5N 135.4E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines Do you have a link to the disqus page on wundergdound? Typhoon Hagibis’ winds were upgraded to a remarkable 185 mph. According to Sam Lillo, only five storms in the global tropical cyclone database have achieved a 145-mph increase in 54 hours or less: Typhoon Vera in 1959 in the northwest Pacific; Hurricane Linda in 1997 in the northeast Pacific; Cyclone Zoe in 2002 in the southeast Pacific; Hurricane Wilma in 2005 in the Atlantic, and Hurricane Patricia in 2015 in the northeast Pacific. 72 HRS: 14.8N 112.2E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea, Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23 – 3:00 AM JST November 1 2020 The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots. as a hurricane…so far anyway…lets hope this changes FAST huh. ================== At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Goni (905 hPa) located at 13.7N 125.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 knots with gusts of 170 knots. Super Typhoon Goni joins Cyclone Amphan (160 mph winds in the North Indian Ocean in May) and Cyclone Harold (165 mph winds in the Southeast Pacific in April) as one of Earth’s three category 5 storms of 2020. Category 5 hurric… Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31 – 15:00 PM JST October 31 2020 The storm has a massive shield of towering thunderstorms surrounding a pinhole-like eye that is just a few miles across. Hurricane Iota strengthened into a "catastrophic" Category 5 hurricane and was set to slam into Central America late Monday, threatening areas devastated by … Highest among all categories of hurricanes is the Category 5 hurricane with wind speeds exceeding 252 km/h or higher. The storm hit two weeks after Hurricane Michael struck Florida’s Big Bend last October. 72 HRS: 15.3N 112.8E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea, Japan Meteorological Agency The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 15 knots. For the period between 2016 and 2035, the study found that there would be an 11 percent uptick in major tropical cyclones, of Category 3 intensity or greater, for example. ========================= 120 nm from the center in southern quadrant, Forecast and Intensity “They’re still recovering [from Yutu],” said Middlebrooke, referencing residents of Saipan and Tinian. Hurricane Iota strengthened into a "catastrophic" Category 5 hurricane and was set to slam into Central America late Monday, threatening areas devastated by a powerful storm just two weeks ago 24 HRS: 13.8N 122.4E – 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Over land Quezon (Luzon/Philippines) It also found, using a climate model capable of simulating these massive storms amid changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions, that future storms could be so intense that a new category — Category 6, might be required to describe their intensity. Super Typhoon Goni exploded into Earth’s most powerful storm of 2020 as a category 5 storm with 180 mph winds in the waters to the east of the Philippines, at 11 a.m. EDT Friday, October 30. 72 HRS: 19.2N 129.2E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines, models are hinting, the season is NOT over yet..huh…………, Dvorak at 8.0 according to Japan Meteorological Agency. Maximum sustained winds increased at least 90 mph in 18 hours, nearly three and a half times the rate a storm would need to strengthen to constitute “rapid intensification,” based on the meteorological definition of that term. TYPHOON GONI (T2019) 260 nm from the center in northwestern quadrant The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 17 knots. There are three highly notable changes in the re-analysis (thanks go to Jasper Deng for this information): 1. Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are considered major hurricanes because of their potential for significant loss of life and damage. Hurricanes of this category destroy almost every structure in their way. The eyewall and eye did make a direct hit on Anatahan, a 13-square-mile uninhabited volcanic island, around noon Eastern Time on Monday. 12 HRS: 14.0N 121.2E – 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Over land Batangas (Luzon/Philippines) Goni is predicted to hit storm-weary Vietnam on November 4 as a tropical storm. We can think for ourselves. However, Goni may pass close enough to the megacity of Manila (metro area population, 13 million) to bring the eyewall winds of the storm to the world’s most densely populated city. On Sunday morning, it was a tropical storm. 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